Macroeconomic Archive

Deflation Risk Fading

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was released yesterday. Normally, I wouldn’t discuss macroeconomic indicators here, but these are very unusual times. I had been increasingly concerned about the potential for deflation. The Consumer Price Index started a trend of monthly declines in the second half of 2008. I’ve never witnessed such a

Poll Results: Stock Class for the End of 2007

Value Investing News asked its members to reach for their crystal balls to determine which stock class will outperform the others in the last quarter of 2007.  The poll that was posted on August 24th asked the following question: In the remaining half of this year, which do you expect to outperform? We received 51

Long Term Stock Market Returns Survey

You might have noticed a poll about expected stock market returns here at Fat Pitch Financials last week. This poll also ran on Value Investing News, Gannon On Investing, and several other financial blogs. I setup the poll to help Geoff Gannon conduct a survey that he will be using for his normalized P/E series.

Current Thoughts on REIT ETFs

I ran across an article today on real estate investment trust (REIT) ETFs at Experiments in Finance. Ricemut, the author, had done a good job exploring various REIT indices and electronically traded funds (ETFs) based on those indices.  She is considering increasing her portfolio diversity by adding a REIT ETF. I currently own a REIT,

Dow Breaks 11,000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 11,011.90 today.  The is the first time the average has exceeded 11,000 since June 7, 2001. What does this mean?  Nothing really, people just like to anchor to round numbers.  As a value investor, it just means that stocks are more expensive to buy.  It also makes finding wide moat

Market Valuation

Once a month, I take the time to examine the overall value of the market. It’s important to avoid making large purchasing decisions when the overall market has been bid up to overvalued levels. As I have mentioned previously, Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth’s website provides a nice set of graphs indicating the market’s valuation

As Foreign Investment Shows Decline, Economists Keep Watch

We’ve experienced some amazingly low interest rates over the past couple of years. This is particularly interesting given the economic climate and huge government deficits. One of the main reason for our low interest rates has been strong foreign purchasing of U.S. debt, especially China. This trend may now be changing with potentially massive ramifications

More on Bill Gross and the CPI

When I discussed inflation and the CPI earlier this month, I knew that Bill Gross’s comments regarding a CPI “con job” was going to make an impact. It didn’t take long for the fireworks to start. Columnist John M. Berry of Bloomberg responded with an article on why Bill Gross’s `Con Job’ Was Inaccurate and

S&P 500 Valuation Checkup

I took a few minutes today to visit Ben Stein’s Yes, You Can Time the Market website. I’ve made it a habit to visit this site once a month to get a feel for the value of the market compared to it’s long term trend. Three out of seven value indicators for the S&P 500

Some Thoughts on Inflation and the CPI

There seems to be quite a bit of talk concerning the CPI and whether recent adjustment to how the index is calculated might understate inflation. Gillespie Research recently provided a detailed summary regarding the Consumer Price Index. James Puplava over at Financial Sense Online has a lengthy multipart series regarding his concerns that inflation is