Comments on: Comments on “More Microsoft” http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/ Special situation stocks and value investing Tue, 07 Feb 2012 02:35:15 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Reports from Microsoft’s Analyst Day - Fat Pitch Financials http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-3971 Reports from Microsoft’s Analyst Day - Fat Pitch Financials Sat, 29 Jul 2006 00:08:57 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-3971 [...] In terms of what the analysts had to say, I found it interesting that the analysts’ value targets ranged from $30 to $33. I reported back in early May that I estimated that the intrinsic value of Microsoft’s stock was about $31.  I took some heat for that estimate but it doesn’t look like I’m too far off from the professional analysts for whatever that’s worth.  Rick Sherlund of Goldman Sachs came in at the lower end with a target of $30 and the UBS analyst, Heather Bellini’s target came in at the high end of the range. [...] [...] In terms of what the analysts had to say, I found it interesting that the analysts’ value targets ranged from $30 to $33. I reported back in early May that I estimated that the intrinsic value of Microsoft’s stock was about $31.  I took some heat for that estimate but it doesn’t look like I’m too far off from the professional analysts for whatever that’s worth.  Rick Sherlund of Goldman Sachs came in at the lower end with a target of $30 and the UBS analyst, Heather Bellini’s target came in at the high end of the range. [...]

]]> By: George http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1117 George Tue, 09 May 2006 02:55:10 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1117 Thanks Steven for the link to Phil's discussion. I think I missed that post, since I don't remember it. I think I would be more comfortable using the weekly charts if I ever decide to do dabble in any technical analysis. Thanks Steven for the link to Phil’s discussion. I think I missed that post, since I don’t remember it. I think I would be more comfortable using the weekly charts if I ever decide to do dabble in any technical analysis.

]]> By: Steven http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1116 Steven Mon, 08 May 2006 23:40:27 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1116 George here is phil on weekly indicators http://philtown.typepad.com/phil_towns_blog/2006/04/question_of_the.html#comment-17022691 George

here is phil on weekly indicators

http://philtown.typepad.com/ph.....t-17022691

]]> By: Steven http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1101 Steven Sat, 06 May 2006 18:08:09 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1101 George, Phil has talked about the weekly view over on his blog...cannot remeber exactly where...if I run across it I will post the link... Phil essnetially admits that the book is not the end all be all of the Rule # 1 way. The book is essentially writtien to appeal to the widest audience and therefore Phil had to smooth over the nuances. But if click on the link about the indicators you can read the 5-7 posts phil has doen as well as follow up commentary which goes into more detail.... also another thing about the book is that the editors asked him to use "4M" instead of "YUMMMY"...I think YUMMMY was the better more detailed way..but again 4M reads eaiser in the book for most people...you can read about it on th e4M link on the main page.. Sorry did not mean to turn this into a post on Phil Town..... Glad you liked the charts...I saw Bill R. at nodoodahs.com using stockcharts.com and tried it out...real easy to use...just don't tell Gannon I am charting..he might ban me form the pure value vclub...lol.. Take care Steven on the main page of the blog Yes over on his blog George,

Phil has talked about the weekly view over on his blog…cannot remeber exactly where…if I run across it I will post the link…

Phil essnetially admits that the book is not the end all be all of the Rule # 1 way. The book is essentially writtien to appeal to the widest audience and therefore Phil had to smooth over the nuances. But if click on the link about the indicators you can read the 5-7 posts phil has doen as well as follow up commentary which goes into more detail….

also another thing about the book is that the editors asked him to use “4M” instead of “YUMMMY”…I think YUMMMY was the better more detailed way..but again 4M reads eaiser in the book for most people…you can read about it on th e4M link on the main page..

Sorry did not mean to turn this into a post on Phil Town…..

Glad you liked the charts…I saw Bill R. at nodoodahs.com using stockcharts.com and tried it out…real easy to use…just don’t tell Gannon I am charting..he might ban me form the pure value vclub…lol..

Take care

Steven
on the main page of the blog Yes over on his blog

]]> By: George http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1100 George Sat, 06 May 2006 15:10:17 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1100 Steven, I am pretty confident that I did okay by my Microsoft purchase. Thanks for running the charts for me. It's interesting to note that the "tools" indicate that one shouldn't have bought MSFT on May 1. I'll be real interested to see when the "tools" end up indicating an entry point. I'm going to stick to looking at the daily view of these charts, because that is what Phil Town's experience has lead him to use. However, it is still interesting to see how the weekly charts work out. Have you seen any discussion by Phil regarding weekly charts? Steven, I am pretty confident that I did okay by my Microsoft purchase. Thanks for running the charts for me. It’s interesting to note that the “tools” indicate that one shouldn’t have bought MSFT on May 1. I’ll be real interested to see when the “tools” end up indicating an entry point. I’m going to stick to looking at the daily view of these charts, because that is what Phil Town’s experience has lead him to use. However, it is still interesting to see how the weekly charts work out. Have you seen any discussion by Phil regarding weekly charts?

]]> By: Steven http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1089 Steven Fri, 05 May 2006 21:50:30 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1089 by the way George I think you did okay... Buffett says MSFT is a buy at $26....seriously... remember a joke is is only funny if it is true...lol...and in january when he used it as an example it was trading around 26 1/2...lol... that does not mean that MSFT is a buy for you or me...just that Buffett/Munger thinks it is a buy for BRK....but imange the bounce MSFT is going to get if it comes out in the 10Q that BRK is buying its first "tech" stock...lol... by the way George I think you did okay…

Buffett says MSFT is a buy at $26….seriously…

remember a joke is is only funny if it is true…lol…and in january when he used it as an example it was trading around 26 1/2…lol…

that does not mean that MSFT is a buy for you or me…just that Buffett/Munger thinks it is a buy for BRK….but imange the bounce MSFT is going to get if it comes out in the 10Q that BRK is buying its first “tech” stock…lol…

]]> By: Steven http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/comment-page-1/#comment-1088 Steven Fri, 05 May 2006 21:30:13 +0000 http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/291/comments-on-more-microsoft/#comment-1088 Hey George, I ran the tools real quick (I am not an expert on the Phil Town system but I think I undertsand the tools) Using your May 1 date of as a buy using the close we see that the tools tell us no way: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&st=2006-03-05&en=2006-05-01&id=p08928765999&a=76221754 the chart is a two month daily close of MSFT...looks like the tools tell us to get out around 4/10...and while the tolls look like they are saying get in around 4/28 or 5/1...i am learning that the tools are more art than science...(i like having the RSI also) you see Phil Town says to use 10, 30, or even 50 MA as a trigger point depending on the trend of the stock...so here I see that all three MA's have convereged 10,30,50 are all about the same..which means the stock has been sideways for sometime and knowing which way it will bounce is kinda hard...so I am not too sure if I would use the tools at this point... now i personally think the weekly view is the way to go...becuase if you are long term...day to day is not so important... here is 5 month weekly view... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&st=2006-01-05&en=2006-05-01&id=p73357280779&a=76221754 now we can see that since 1/30/06 or about there we were told to get out with two reds (Phil Town says in the book three green or reds...but if you read is blog he likes to get out with two reds and in with three because the point is to avoid losing money more thanit is to make money) and then yo could make the arguemtn that around 3/15/06 that you got a third green arrow on the MACD...but then you got the first red arrow about the same time on the MACD... and then right about 4/1 you got a second red on the slow stoch...which means you would get out of MSFT at about $27.25...on the weekly chart...and no three greens have come up since...actually not even one green.... now does that mean you did something worng...no...because with true vlaue you are not looking to time the market...once you have foudn a good deal with a safe MOS..than you buy anf forget and wait for the market to recognize... but if you want to mix a little TA using Phil Town than yeah you might have waited until there was better momentum... I think the best thing about Phil Town's tools is that they realy do help tell a little guy somethign is up...if you take a look at the 2-3 weeks before the most recent buy announment by BRK that it was buying Russell..you can see that the tools headed down...so I think some big players got the whisper what Buffett was up to and got out just in case the market was negative about the purchase...you can run the charts yourself to see what I am talking about...in fact if you go back and pick a stock that disapointed or surprised..and run the tools..you probably will dfind that the tools telegraph the move... just my own thoughts...like I said i am not an expert...just been sorta playing with it... Steven Hey George,

I ran the tools real quick (I am not an expert on the Phil Town system but I think I undertsand the tools)

Using your May 1 date of as a buy using the close we see that the tools tell us no way:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui.....a=76221754

the chart is a two month daily close of MSFT…looks like the tools tell us to get out around 4/10…and while the tolls look like they are saying get in around 4/28 or 5/1…i am learning that the tools are more art than science…(i like having the RSI also)

you see Phil Town says to use 10, 30, or even 50 MA as a trigger point depending on the trend of the stock…so here I see that all three MA’s have convereged 10,30,50 are all about the same..which means the stock has been sideways for sometime and knowing which way it will bounce is kinda hard…so I am not too sure if I would use the tools at this point…

now i personally think the weekly view is the way to go…becuase if you are long term…day to day is not so important…

here is 5 month weekly view…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui.....a=76221754

now we can see that since 1/30/06 or about there we were told to get out with two reds (Phil Town says in the book three green or reds…but if you read is blog he likes to get out with two reds and in with three because the point is to avoid losing money more thanit is to make money)

and then yo could make the arguemtn that around 3/15/06 that you got a third green arrow on the MACD…but then you got the first red arrow about the same time on the MACD…

and then right about 4/1 you got a second red on the slow stoch…which means you would get out of MSFT at about $27.25…on the weekly chart…and no three greens have come up since…actually not even one green….

now does that mean you did something worng…no…because with true vlaue you are not looking to time the market…once you have foudn a good deal with a safe MOS..than you buy anf forget and wait for the market to recognize…

but if you want to mix a little TA using Phil Town than yeah you might have waited until there was better momentum…

I think the best thing about Phil Town’s tools is that they realy do help tell a little guy somethign is up…if you take a look at the 2-3 weeks before the most recent buy announment by BRK that it was buying Russell..you can see that the tools headed down…so I think some big players got the whisper what Buffett was up to and got out just in case the market was negative about the purchase…you can run the charts yourself to see what I am talking about…in fact if you go back and pick a stock that disapointed or surprised..and run the tools..you probably will dfind that the tools telegraph the move…

just my own thoughts…like I said i am not an expert…just been sorta playing with it…

Steven

]]>